The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in April 2021 published its latest set of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs).

Designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trends, CLIs continue to strengthen in most major economies.

• In the US, the CLI increases steadily, thanks to a greater consumer confidence.
• In Japan, Canada, and the euro-area (especially Germany and Italy), the CLIs point towards a steady raise.
• In France and in the UK, the CLIs signal stable growth.
• In Russia, in India, in other major emerging countries and in the manufacturing sector of China, the CLIs continue to expand at a regular rate.
• Brazil’s CLI points to slowing growth.

As a caveat, the OECD explains that CLIs “are to be interpreted carefully as the Covid-19 situation develops, as containment measures and vaccination campaigns have the potential to stimulate abnormal changes in the underlying components and revisions may ensue”.