The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in April 2017 published its monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) with data from February 2017.
Growth is anticipated to pick-up in the United States, Canada, and in Germany. In the United Kingdom, as in last month’s publication, there are tentative signs of growth gaining momentum, although the CLI remains below trend and uncertainty persists about the nature of the agreement the UK will eventually conclude with the EU. In the OECD area as a whole, as well as specifically in the euro area in general and in France and in Italy as well as in Japan, the CLIs indicate stable growth momentum.
Amongst major emerging economies, growth is expected to gain momentum in China, Brazil and Russia. The CLI for India has indeed reversed and now signals easing growth momentum.
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Triangles mark turning-points of the CLI; they tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity.
The CLI is a measure of future economic growth that anticipates turning points in economic activity relative to the long-term trend six to nine months ahead. It may be used to anticipate phases of economic expansion and recession, and is available for 32 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies.
The April 2017 press release can be found as a link on this page [1], which includes additional links to information about the CLI.
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