Swiss Re in June 2021 published a new edition of its SONAR research report under the title “New Emerging Risks Insights”.

The report addresses the threats that will shape the future post-COVID-19 risk landscape. They range from the unintended consequences of government interventions through to the dangers of restarting under-maintained industrial facilities.

The key issues addressed include:

• COVID-19 to worsen income inequality; growth in the global middle class slowed and poverty levels rose in 2020
• Government support programmes have kept alive unviable “zombie” companies, leading to increased credit and financial market risks
• Electric vehicles and other decarbonised means of transport can cut up to 24% of current C02 emissions from fuel combustion
• Emerging technological risks around biased product testing and restarting dormant industries

The 54-page report also includes a brief discussion of the future in insurance modelling. According to Swiss Re, “Models for risk assessment, capital allocation or projecting financial market trends are core to insurance business. Traditionally, models have been built relying mostly on historical data. In view of present- and future-day uncertainties introduced by factors such as climate change, record-low interest rates and low inflation, among many others, insurers need to debias their risk assessment models and make them also forward looking.” In other words, relying on historical data to model the future cannot work in times of radical departures from the past.

The report can be downloaded here (the link is at the bottom of the page and your contact information will be requested): SONAR 2021: New emerging risk insights | Swiss Re