The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in February 2020 released its list of the top five risks to the global economy in 2020:
1. US-Iran conflict leads to a spike in global oil prices
Likelihood: 25%
2. A trade war breaks out between the US and the EU
Likelihood: 25%
3. Coronavirus takes a lasting toll on the global economy
Likelihood: 20%
4. Debt burdens cause a recession across emerging markets
Likelihood: 20%
5. Hong Kong protests cause an exodus from Asia’s biggest financial centre
Likelihood: 15%
The likelihood of at least one of these five possible events occurring in 2020 is … 69%.
The EIU report can be downloaded from this page [1] (contact information required). The company is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper.
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