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EIU: Top five risks to the global economy in 2020

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The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in February 2020 released its list of the top five risks to the global economy in 2020:

1. US-Iran conflict leads to a spike in global oil prices
Likelihood: 25%
2. A trade war breaks out between the US and the EU
Likelihood: 25%
3. Coronavirus takes a lasting toll on the global economy
Likelihood: 20%
4. Debt burdens cause a recession across emerging markets
Likelihood: 20%
5. Hong Kong protests cause an exodus from Asia’s biggest financial centre
Likelihood: 15%

The likelihood of at least one of these five possible events occurring in 2020 is … 69%.


The EIU report can be downloaded from this page (contact information required). The company is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper.

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