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2023 OECD Inflation Trends: Easing Headlines, Food, and Energy Dynamics

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GBV’s Summary of OECD Consumer Price Index and Headline Inflation Rates Report – November 2023

Key Findings:

General Trend of Inflation:

The OECD headline inflation eased slightly to 6.2% in September 2023, down from 6.4% in August. This change follows previous increases in July and August. Inflation decreased in 27 OECD countries but rose in 8, including significant rises in Spain, Costa Rica, Slovenia, and Türkiye.

Notably, Türkiye, Hungary, and Colombia experienced double-digit inflation rates​​.

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OECD Consumer Price Index and Headline Inflation Rates Report – November 2023

Food and Energy Inflation Trends:

Food inflation in the OECD slowed for the tenth consecutive month, reaching 8.1% in September, down from 8.8% in August. However, it still exceeded 10% in nine OECD countries.

Energy inflation increased between August and September in 22 OECD countries but remained negative overall in the OECD. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) moderated slightly to 6.6% from 6.8% in August​​.

G7 Inflation Dynamics:

Year-on-year inflation in the G7 countries remained broadly stable at 4.1% in September. A notable development was the turning of energy inflation positive for the first time since February 2023, which helped mitigate the continued slowdown in food and core inflation.

Germany witnessed a significant drop in headline inflation, primarily due to a sharp decrease in energy inflation. In France, energy inflation rose sharply, partly due to the phasing out of price shields​​.

Euro Area Inflation:

In the euro area, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) year-on-year inflation dropped to 4.3% in September from 5.2% in August. Core inflation saw a significant decline, and food inflation fell at a similar pace to the previous five months.

Energy inflation remained negative for the fifth consecutive month. A flash estimate for October suggests a further decline in year-on-year inflation in the euro area to 2.9%, its lowest level since July 2021​​.

G20 Inflation Overview:

In the G20, year-on-year inflation declined to 6.1% in September 2023, down from 6.3% in August. India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia saw significant decreases in inflation, with Indonesia and Saudi Arabia reaching their lowest levels since February 2022.

However, inflation rose in Argentina, South Africa, and Brazil. China’s inflation continued to hover around zero​​.

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