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Brexit Saga Extended

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It may sound as if the journalist corps in April 2019 successfully plotted to keep the never-ending story alive, but the fact is, the Brexit saga has been given a new lease of life on the eve of one of its many potential endings. That particular ending would have been an unhappy one, but still who cares…

So, what does the new episode look like?

Well, the updated decision tree is rather complex and here is our understanding of the compromise reached between the UK and the E.U. on April 10, 2019.

If the United Kingdom does not

  1. ratify the Withdrawal Agreement before May 22, 2019,
  2. AND (does not) hold elections for the European Parliament between May 23-26, 2019

then, a no-deal Brexit will occur on June 1, 2019.

If the UK holds elections for the European Parliament, and if both the UK and EU ratify the Withdrawal Agreement before October 31, 2019, then there would be an orderly Brexit on the first day of the month following those ratifications.

If the UK holds elections for the European Parliament but the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified before October 31, then there would be a no-deal Brexit effective November 1, 2019. In our opinion, this is the most likely scenario as the UK Parliament is unlikely to reverse its opposition to the Withdrawal Agreement but is not above seeing the UK send a fresh batch of MEPs to the European Parliament.

The UK remains a member of the EU until the day of Brexit, orderly or not, and UK nationals continue to benefit from all rights awarded to EU nationals.

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