Global P/C Premiums Expected to Grow 5%/yr. Over The Next 20 Years – Swiss Re
According to SwissRe Institute’s sigma study published in September 2021, global premiums in P/C insurance are expected to grow by an average 5 to 6% per year over the 2020 to 2040 period, reaching USD 4.3 trillion by 2040, up from 450 billion in 2020.
The expected growth is driven by effects of economic development and climate change, and includes a shift from lower-risk, high-volume motor insurance to catastrophe-exposed property lines.
Motor, although its share is shrinking, is expected to remain the largest of all P&C lines. With respect to liability, social inflation is expected to drive up the frequency of large verdicts and settlements, especially in the U.S.; additional areas of long-term growth potential come from climate change effects, artificial intelligence, and social and legal changes.
sigma 4/2021, titled “More risk: the changing nature of P&C insurance opportunities to 2040“ can be downloaded here: https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/sigma-2021-04.html (contact information requested).