Growth Losing Momentum – July 2022 Composite Leading Indicators – OECD
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in July 2022 released Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) that continue to signal growth losing momentum in most major economies and in the OECD area as a whole.
Among large OECD economies, the CLI for the United States now signals growth losing momentum, a change from last month’s stable growth indication. In the United Kingdom, Canada and in the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, the CLIs continue to anticipate growth losing momentum, dragged down by high inflation, low consumer confidence and declining share prices. In Japan, the CLI continues to point to stable growth.
Among major emerging-market economies, growth is expected to lose momentum in China (industrial sector) and to slow down in Brazil. In India, the CLI points to stable growth.
Ongoing uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 are resulting in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI components. As a result, the indicators should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity.