OECD CLI in March 2020 Began Reflecting Economic Impact of COVID-19
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)’s Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) in April 2020 went into negative territory as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
The CLI was on the path to recovery after a low point in September 2019 when the trajectory abruptly changed for the worse. In March 2020, the CLI level is at 98.77 vs the Feb 2020 level of 99.57, up from Jan 2020 at 99.46, and compared to the long-term average of 100.
Whilst the change of direction and in absolute level may look ominous enough, the CLI in March 2020 is still very far from the lows of the 1975, 1983 and 2008 crises.
Most commentators expect the CLI to continue to fall in the months ahead.