The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in April 2022 published its latest Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), based on data available up to March 2022.

CLIs are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trends. The newest numbers point to growth losing momentum in Europe, but a stable growth in other major OECD economies.

In Europe (U.K. and the Euro area) the lower growth momentum is driven by a contraction in consumer confidence indicators and the surge of inflation.

Outside Europe, the CLIs continue to signal stable growth in the United States, Japan, Canada, China (industrial sector) and India. In Brazil the CLI continues to anticipate slowing growth.

The CLIs aim to anticipate fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, confidence indicators, building permits, long-term interest rates, new car registrations, and many more. Ongoing uncertainties related to COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine are resulting in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI and its components.

OECD’s press release is available here as a PDF.