According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), its provisional estimates released in May 2025 show that gross domestic product (GDP) across the OECD area rose by just 0.1 % quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter (Q1) 2025, down markedly from 0.5 % in the previous quarter. This breaks the pattern of relatively strong and stable growth seen in the OECD area over the past two years.

G7 growth also decelerated to 0.1 % in Q1 2025 (from 0.4 % in Q4 2024), but performance varied widely across members. GDP contracted in both Japan and the United States (-0.2 % and -0.1 %, respectively). In Japan, goods imports climbed by 2.4 % in Q1 after a 1.6 % drop in Q4. In the United States, goods imports surged by 10.8 % after a 1.3 % decline in Q4; this jump—likely linked to anticipated tariff changes—was the main drag on growth. Canada’s growth also slowed (to 0.4 % from 0.6 %).

In contrast, the United Kingdom recorded a sharp pickup, expanding by 0.7 % (up from 0.1 %), driven mainly by higher investment (-0.6 % in Q4 to +2.9 % in Q1) and a rebound in goods exports (+5.6 % after -7.3 %). Growth edged up in Italy (0.3 % from 0.2 %) and turned positive in Germany (0.2 %) and France (0.1 %).

Among other OECD economies with available data, 17 countries saw slower growth in Q1 2025 compared with Q4 2024, and four registered contractions. Slovenia posted the largest quarterly fall (-0.8 %), followed by Portugal (-0.5 %). By contrast, Ireland recorded the strongest growth (3.2 %).

Year-on-year, OECD GDP grew by 1.6 % in Q1 2025, down from 1.9 % in Q4 2024. Within the G7, Canada posted the fastest annual growth (2.3 %), followed by the United States (2.0 %), while Germany recorded the largest decline (-0.2 %).