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NBER immigration research broadens the productivity case for global mobility

Country level associations offer a strategic perspective while leaving employer returns to be demonstrated

In November 2026, the National Bureau of Economic Research published a Digest summarising a July working paper on immigration and macroeconomic outcomes across 38 OECD economies during 1990–2024. It reports positive relationships between non-OECD immigration, GDP-per-worker growth, investment and human capital. These country-level findings do not mean an individual employer’s mobility program has a positive return.

Define the capability being built

The research gives mobility leaders a useful strategic frame. An assignment may aim to transfer knowledge, establish a business operation or develop a local team. Its business case should explain which capability is expected to remain after the move ends, rather than relying only on vacancy coverage or the number of assignments completed.

Benefits can support the conditions for delivery, but their contribution needs separate evidence. Healthcare continuity, pension treatment and support for dependants should be linked to identifiable obstacles in the assignment. The paper does not establish that a particular benefits package produces the macroeconomic effects it describes.

Measure the employer’s own results

This editor recommends setting an operational objective, a review date and a small set of measures before approving the assignment. Relevant evidence could include knowledge transferred, unresolved coverage issues, early returns and retention after completion. The appropriate measures will depend on the business purpose.

Boards should also compare alternatives such as host-country recruitment, remote expertise or a shorter deployment. A receiving team must have the resources to use incoming skills; efficient administration cannot compensate for an unclear role.

The useful conclusion is therefore disciplined rather than promotional. NBER’s work broadens the case for considering mobility as an investment in productive capacity. Employers still need to demonstrate the mechanisms and results of their own programmes, while distinguishing historical associations from causal claims.

Sources

National Bureau of Economic Research — Digest | NBER links non-OECD immigration with productivity growth across OECD economies ; Working Paper 35523

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